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I have been reading too much on persuasion, these days, and I have even done some pontificating on the subject matter. It is only while reading on humanity’s Pan Ancestor,[1] however, that I have to come to realize the complexity hiding behind the concept of “persuasion”.
Meat-eating apes (chimpanzee, bonobos, and...
Professor Raymond Cohen, a leading historian of diplomacy, says “The practice of Greek diplomacy was quite rudimentary” (…) “Compared with Persian cosmopolitanism, Greek diplomacy was provincial and unpolished”.[1] Since my high-school days, I have been prejudiced against all things Greek – ancient that is. “The ancient Greeks had...
“Past performance is no indicator of future success” is a warning attached to many financial products that are hawked in the Street. Few people pay any attention to the warning. In fact, “past performance” is the basis of meritocracy. The (predictable) outcome is the Peter Principle. The Peter Principle is a proposition stating that the members of an organization where promotion...
A landmark document created at the request of NATO has proposed a set of rules for how international cyberwarfare should be conducted. Written by 20 experts in conjunction with the International Committee of the Red Cross and the US Cyber Command, the...
Records of an international relations system go back to the mid-fourteenth century BC.[1] At that time already, treaties were signed. Brides were exchanged. Relations between extractive elites focused on the balance of “vital interests” – power relations.
International relations today are not so much about power relations as...
In 213, I have commented on the Italian elections. Meanwhile, a friend of mine has suggested to me signing a “petition” on the future of the country. http://www.change.org – “the world’s petition platform” – sent me 9 similar petitions. I perused them:
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For two thousand years, we have read the Greek classics. We have done so in a peculiar fashion. Their gods were central to their worldview. We discarded their gods, which we despised as mere idols. In doing so, we’ve lost much of the deeper meaning that attached to the gods. We have misread the Greeks. What did the Greeks mean with this ongoing interference of the gods from on high?
...Italy has voted. And the winner is….the people! I’d say.
Do not let blinkered pundits lead you astray. The people’s message is: “Think out of the box”. The electoral vote is a classic case of “unexpected outcome” – the stuff of emergent complex systems – that forces politicians (and pundits as well as pilot fish) to change paradigm.
Here, the main results (in million votes...
The vagueness of the concept
If you want to be a public intellectual in the US, find the catchy turn of phrase and then beat the chicken-mint peas-mashed potatoes circuit with it, writing op-eds in the NYTimes on week-ends to uplifting effect. The “catchy phrase” best be vague and fuzzy: empty vessels resonate best. Like patent medicine it guarantees...
I’m no friend of the precautionary principle – and I’ve argued against its indiscriminate use. I could not pinpoint clearly my uneasiness, however. Thanks to Biljana Scott (http://bit.ly/VghI0L) I’m now able to do so.
In a recent blog she refers to a special Greek notion of time: kairos (καιρός), which can be translated as...
159 member states are about to select the new WTO Director General. I’ve attended a beauty contest among some of the candidates. Their personalities are impressive. But what about the policies they should implement in the organization?
An impressive success for the treaty system
The WTO treaty system is all about reducing barriers to trade – intended and...
Let’s recall the definition of game theory as applied to international relations: “Game theory assumes each state is a unitary actor concerned about promoting its national interests, and rationally calculates the payoffs associated with various options (moves); the payoff from a given move will depend on the move taken by the other player(s).”...
I closed 206 by saying that “diplomacy is where there are no rules”[1]. Here is a situation, which would fit a “use” definition of diplomacy. (A “use” definition is one that describes what one does, rather than what one is).
It’s a dark and stormy night; the rain pours so hard, the car lights reflect the rain and you...
I’ve vented my prejudices against “theory” in the past (see my http://wp.me/p81We-xh ). For one, the term “theory” seems to me perilously fuzzy. Here two definitions I got off the net[1]:
1. a coherent group of tested general propositions, commonly regarded as...
In my http://wp.me/p81We-zo I mused that we are just beginning to understand the complexity of social realities and of history. Sounds clever, but what do I really mean? As luck would have it, I’ve been reading recently on the origins of the American Revolution. This historical period has been studied so much, and in such detail, that one can use the...
Justice is predicated on guilt/innocence of the accused beyond reasonable doubt. It is steeped in the view of personal autonomy and individual responsibility. Justice is grounded in the paradigm that the sleuths of justice may solve the puzzle underpinning the crime and assign responsibility.
What to do with mysteries – criminal situations where it is inherently...
(just a fairy tale?)
We love to anchor history to events – kings and battles or revolutions. Savvy historians tell us that this reflects our need for retrospective coherence – and not reality (which is mostly chaotic). History, they (rightly) argue, has no beginning[1] – we emerged somehow...
Popular belief long held that one could steal a person’s soul (and hold him/her in one’s power) by casting a spell over something that belonged to the victim. Witchcraft the world over is predicated on such stealing of hair, nails, or making a puppet resembling the person. It is the powerless’ dream of ultimate power as well as projection of his fear of the infinite forces that hold him...
Popular belief long held that one could steal a person’s soul (and hold him/her in one’s power) by casting a spell over something that belonged to the victim. Witchcraft the world over is predicated on such stealing of hair, nails, or making a puppet resembling the person. It is the powerless’ dream of ultimate power as well as projection of his fear of the infinite forces that hold him...
Pity, in a way, China’s Emperor Qianlong[1]. The “Lord of the Civilized Word” (this was his title) personally supervised an extensive bureaucracy reporting to him either by the “open” or the “confidential” channel. He read all correspondence and marked it: “Noted”, “What’s all this stuff?” or roundly abused the mandarin: “...
Pity, in a way, China’s Emperor Qianlong[1]. The “Lord of the Civilized Word” (this was his title) personally supervised an extensive bureaucracy reporting to him either by the “open” or the “confidential” channel. He read all correspondence and marked it: “Noted”, “What’s all this stuff?” or roundly abused the mandarin: “...
197 – Humans as other animals…
In the 1930 Nicolaas TINBERGEN, Konrad LORENZ; and Karl von FRISCH created a new science – ethology: the study of animal behavior. Their progress warranted then a Nobel Prize… in medicine.
Three hundred years before DESCARTES had argued that not only animals lacked “soul” (whatever that may be), but they had no feelings, and just driven...
A fact is a fact is a fact – we all know that. But what is a “social fact”?
“Social facts” – according to John SEARLE who has spent most of his life studying them – “are only facts by common agreement”[1].
As a “brute fact” a stamp is an insignificant-looking little square, often fancily...
A fact is a fact is a fact – we all know that. But what is a “social fact”?
“Social facts” – according to John SEARLE who has spent most of his life studying them – “are only facts by common agreement”[1].
As a “brute fact” a stamp is an insignificant-looking little square, often fancily...
As the new Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party is inaugurated in Beijing, terms like “harmony” and “stability” are buzz-words describing the vision of the China Communist Country for the country. The West tends to scoff at these terms, and tends to put them down as slogans. Multi-party democracy is best when achieving sustainable “stability”, it is argued.
In theory...
Cohesion within a group of monkeys is maintained through reciprocal grooming. Studies of captive monkeys have shown that grooming makes them more relaxed, reducing their heart rate as well as other external signs of stress. They sometimes become so relaxed that they fall asleep. In fact, we now know that grooming stimulates the production of the body’s natural opiates, the endorphins; in...
The Brookings Institution has published a long review article on eDiplomacy at the US State Department[1]. Much of the report is factual, interesting, but is not going to transform diplomacy. Electronic means will be useful instruments in disseminating information, raising awareness, and all the humdrum things that make up “public...
I’ve asked a US diplomat friend of mine what his experience had been with Facebook as a tool in diplomacy. Here is his answer: “we had good results with Facebook outreach to Palestinians and Israeli Arabs on business, economic, social and technology issues.”
There are a few interesting lessons to glean from this short statement.
The most important one in my view is that it...
Jovan has commented recently on the name tags people wear around their necks when they attend a meeting http://bit.ly/SDO5C2 . He looked at it from the practical point yield “usability”. Jovan’s point is wholly valid. Tag design should aim foremost to being useful, i.e. to allow easy identification among participants – and security people.
...More than specific technologies it is our “habits of thought” – our “mentality” – which allows societies to advance in understanding reality of a broad front. Around 1250 such a change in mentality took hold in Europe. We never looked back. What happened?
One view is that: “Western Europeans evolved a new way, more purely visual and quantitative than the old, of perceiving...
Should we not take advantage of today’s “tradition” of aversion against nuclear weapons – I’ve highlighted this “taboo” in my 186 – to go for nuclear disarmament? A friend asked me this question. I’m not an expert on this issue, but I can contribute three considerations.
Liminary remark first: Things have changed. For one, deterrence has become a “three (main) body object” – a far...
Thomas C. SCHELLING won the 2005 “Nobel” Prize in Economics for his “having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis”. In fact, much of his work found immediate application in arms control planning, in particular the use of nuclear weapons as deterrent. Unsurprisingly, his Lecture deals with 60 years of living with strategic and...
Before the UN General Assembly PM Benyamin NETANYAHU has argued that the UN should “red-line” Iran. The country should face the foreseeable threat of foreign military intervention, should its nuclear capability reach inadmissible levels. Is this a sensible diplomatic tactic?
Our hunter/gatherer ancestors had say 300 SKU (stock keeping units) – the managerial term for kinds of worldly goods. In New York City alone the SKU is well over 10 billion nowadays[1]. If you think nature is multifarious, think again: we have probably created more cultural objects in 10’000 years than nature has created...
The Peace of Augsburg 1555, and then the Peace of Westphalia (1648) marked the end of common rules that would apply across emergent national states in Europe. Henceforth each state was autocratic within and autonomous without. The border was the boundary delimitating the internal and external fields of power – and by implication potential “friend” from “foe”. This boundary...
When I first mentioned to a diplomatic friend my intention of writing a blog entry on “diplomats without borders” I was met with incredulity. “Diplomats are the peacetime gate keepers at the border! You can’t have diplomats without borders.”
Are borders “vital”? An interesting question – and one which is worth a short visit to Africa and its history, for Africa emerged from its...
While writing up the blog entries on Positive Deviance (see my 175 and 176) I decided to read Isaiah BERLIN’s famous essay: Two concepts of liberty[1]. BERLIN’s discursive style is always a pleasure to read, though at times it feels meandering and imprecise. He is right, in my view, to be wary of “Procustations” –...
In blog entry 178 I have provided an example of how we fail to see what’s obvious, if it does not fit our preconceived ideas. Before I move to ideologies currently at work in shaping what one may call the Zeitgeist – the spirit of our time – let me cast a look on the opposite process:...
It’s obvious (and efficient): we humans communicate differences and presume commonalities.
When I speak I do not begin by explaining the extremely complex rules of grammar and syntax that underlie my sentences. How boring it would be for the listener about to struggle with the shower of my pearls of wisdom!
I assume that we share the rules and go on to apply them in order to...
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All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/204-adrift-on-historys-perilous-sea-of-necessities/
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/204-adrift-on-historys-perilous-sea-of-necessities/
All terms: http://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/obama%E2%80%99s-2013-inaugural-doctor%E2%80%99s-diagnosis
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http://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/obama%E2%80%99s-2013-inaugural-doctor%E2%80%99s-diagnosis
All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/188-de-fanging-nuclear-weapons/, http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/204-adrift-on-historys-perilous-sea-of-necessities/
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/188-de-fanging-nuclear-weapons/, http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/204-adrift-on-historys-perilous-sea-of-necessities/
All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/11/04/186-when-theory-goes-muddling-through/
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/11/04/186-when-theory-goes-muddling-through/
All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/12/11/200-once-upon-a-change-in-mentality/, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/hegel/.
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/12/11/200-once-upon-a-change-in-mentality/, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/hegel/.
All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/198-vermilion-abuse-i/
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/198-vermilion-abuse-i/
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/181-anchoring-a-negotiation/
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All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/11/16/2107/, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia%E2%80%93Europe_Meeting
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/11/16/2107/, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia%E2%80%93Europe_Meeting
All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/09/05/164-the-darker-side-of-twitter/
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All terms: http://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/usability-make-life-easier
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All terms: http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/kvetching-about-youth/
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http://deepdip.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/kvetching-about-youth/
All terms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Schelling, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/author/malfrid-braut-hegghammer?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-102512-malfrid_braut_hegghammer-102512
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Schelling, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/author/malfrid-braut-hegghammer?cid=nlc-this_week_on_foreignaffairs_co-102512-malfrid_braut_hegghammer-102512
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